Nanaimo-Ladysmith constituents had factors like Trump and strategic voting in mind as they went to the polls earlier this week, says a VIU poli sci professor.
Tamara Kronis of the Conservatives won the riding with 26,081 votes, or 35.2 per cent of votes cast. Michelle Corfield representing the Liberals received 20,693 (27.9 per cent); Lisa Marie Barron of the New Democratic Party saw 13,591 (18.3 per cent); Paul Manly of the Greens 13,486 (18.2 per cent) and Stephen Welton of the People's Party of Canada received 294 votes (0.4 per cent).
Tariff and annexation talk from President Trump and the United States were hot election topics and David Livingstone, a Vancouver Island University political studies professor, said while Nanaimo-Ladysmith was previously NDP territory, allegiances may have changed due to that threat.
He pointed to comments from Barron at the all-candidates' forum at VIU the week before the election.
"She said the thing she consistently heard [while] door-knocking was, 鈥榃hat do we have to do to stop the Conservatives from winning?' So there seemed to be not so much of, 鈥榃ho do we want to vote for?', but 鈥榃ho are we voting against?' So there was definitely that strategic voting idea," said Livingstone.
The Conservative Party's promises to address affordability and other aspects of the economy, as well as the opioid crisis, helped Kronis resonate with voters, according to the VIU prof.
"What's interesting is to see a younger generation starting to drift towards the Conservatives, which is surprising," Livingstone said. "But I think that signals to me that the message is getting through to those individuals who are very worried about what jobs they're going to get in the future and how secure those jobs are. Can they afford a home? That is resonating with young people like it's not resonated before 鈥� the Conservatives, I think, have done a pretty good job speaking to those issues."
However, a perception that the Conservatives didn't sufficiently distance themselves from U.S. Republicans was detrimental federally, according to the professor, who said the Tories instead seemed to continue to push the policies that had served them well in the election's lead-up.
The prof suggested that Liberal leader Mark Carney presented himself well during the campaign, and may have benefited from exceeding some people's expectations.
"I think a lot of people thought a guy that [has] lots of other experience, but not experience as a politician, wouldn't fare so well in the election, or debate, and he came across as competent and unflustered," said Livingstone. "His experience on the world stage seemed to help 鈥� I think people are also evaluating who is best to confront Trump. They were watching the demeanour of these two individuals and I think it seemed to a lot of people that Carney seemed to appear very prime ministerial very quickly."
The prof said he couldn't say whether the Greens and NDP siphoned votes from each other, but did note that partway through the campaign, the NDP seemingly pivoted to a strategy with messaging stating "Here on the Island, we vote NDP to stop the Conservatives," but it wasn't enough.
"In a certain way, they were campaigning on the goal of vote-splitting,鈥� said Livingstone. "What's interesting is that it seemed that the people that may have normally voted for the NDP decided to park their vote with the Liberals 鈥� so we ended up with gains for the Liberals and gains for the Conservatives and the NDP losing quite a few seats."
Voter turnout in Nanaimo-Ladysmith was 72.3 per cent, way up from 64 per cent in 2021, and Livingstone felt high voter turnout had everything to do with the U.S.
"The obvious answer, I think, is Trump and rise of this new nationalism in Canada 鈥� There was an emotional uplift about Canada [meaning] something and that drove people to be very interested in this election," he said. "They could see it as a as a vital election about who's going to take us through this next very difficult few years."
